COX Automotive says it expects new car registrations in 2023 to hit 1.77m, according to Philip Nothard (pictured) in the latest AutoFocus edition.
At 1.77m, total registrations will be +15.6% year-on-year but -23.1% down compared with the 2000-2019 average, and -23.1% down compared with the most recent pre-pandemic 2019 performance.
This, says the automotive services organisation, reflects the ongoing headwinds such as the post-pandemic recovery, the war in Ukraine, and the emergence of new and aggressive market entrants.
If conditions worsen, Cox Automotive sees the year ending on 1.68 million registrations, +9.5% up year-on-year, but -27.1% down compared with 2000-2019 average, and -27.1% compared with the most recent pre-pandemic 2019 performance. A worst case scenario, it said, would be 1.55m registrations.
Production line shutdowns, part shortages and global supply chain disruptions
Cox said these figures were based on current automotive industry impacts post pandemic. Raw material supply shortages and rising prices were continuing to hit production, affecting vehicle production capacity and reducing OEM margins.
There are 31 million fewer cars produced in the two years following the global lockdown than in the same period before. Considering the challenges that still exist today around global production in the manufacturing space, this is set to rise to closer to 40 million over three years, if not more.
Philip added that not only were the knock-on effects of the pandemic continuing to put a strain on automotive supply chains, but the political and economic turbulence from the war in Ukraine was resulting in shockwaves for supply chains and the global economy, driving inflation and increasing costs. These costs, in turn, were being passed onto customers.
China's influence in Europe
Philip added that Chinese brands were continuing to gain a strong foothold in the UK, and would become a significant presence in terms of sales over time.
China is already the world's largest body of the electric vehicle market, with over 1.3 million units sold annually, representing 40% of sales worldwide. Europe, of course, is slowly moving towards a greener future. Still, for this, we will need more electric vehicle-centric manufacturers providing the clean cars legislation, and consumer demand necessitates – perhaps Chinese brands present an additional solution.
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Ralph Morton is the leading journalist in the leasing broker sector and editor of Broker News, the website which provides information and news for BVRLA-registered leasing brokers. He also writes extensively on the fleet and leasing market in both the UK and Europe.
