30% of van fleets expecting growth in next three years - Arval

SHORT term uncertainty over the numbers for UK van fleets doesn’t deflect from a more optimistic long term picture, says Arval research.

Thirty per cent of UK van fleets are expecting growth in the next three years, according to the 2025 Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer.

This compares to 55% who believe numbers will remain stable and 13% who are predicting a decrease.

The research appears to show a slight downturn in confidence – last year, 40% of fleets expected an increase against 45% stable and a 14% decrease.

John Peters, Head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said: “There’s been a 10 percentage point fall in the number of UK respondents to Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer who expect their van fleet to grow compared to last year.

“However, there’s also been almost no movement in those who say they believe there will be a contraction in fleet numbers – it’s fallen by just 1% to 13%. Instead, there has been a considerable shift to the ‘stable’ column – growing from 45% to 55%.

“To us, this is all reflective of the general economic mood among fleet operators, which we would characterise as slightly more uncertain. We are seeing very little actual pessimism among UK businesses, just maybe a little less optimism.”

John added that it should also be recognised that having almost a third (30%) of fleets expecting growth remained very much a positive.

“Van operators tend to be at the sharp end of the economy and a reliable litmus test of the general mood of the industry. As an indicator of real-world conditions, the fact that nearly one in three are expecting their fleet to expand remains good news.”

John Peters, Head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK Tweet

“This can also be seen when comparing UK fleets to their international counterparts. Here, there is both greater expectation of growth and lower concerns about contraction than in Europe and globally. Overall, there is some justification for caution but also for confidence.”

Do you expect the size of your light commercial vehicle fleet to increase, remain stable or decrease during the next three years?

UK fleets Increase Remain stable Decrease

2025 30% 55% 13%

2024 40% 45% 14%

2023 38% 49% 12%

European fleets Increase Remain stable Decrease

2025 25% 64% 9%

2024 26% 62% 9%

2023 26% 63% 9%

Global fleets Increase Remain stable Decrease

2025 27% 63% 8%

2024 28% 62% 9%

2023 28% 62% 8%

For this independent survey, 8,061 company decision makers were interviewed across 28 countries by an independent research company, Ipsos, out of which 300 interviews took place in the UK.