THERE is some real optimism to be found from brokers and leasing companies as the latest BVRLA Report looks to 2026, despite the deterioration of the UK economy.
The data in the 2026 Industry Outlook Report is based on a survey of rental, leasing and broker BVRLA members taken in October 2025. It describes it as ‘an in-depth view of business sentiment and emerging market trends’.
“The aim of this report is not to add to the noise, but to distil what really matters for 2026, using your data and perspectives to highlight the risks and opportunities.”
It finds that 63% of rental and leasing businesses expect economic conditions to worsen in 2026. Companies also remain cautious on future vehicle values, driven by rampant depreciation of electric cars and vans.
But brokers show positive mentality
- 48% of brokers forecast growth in SME sector
Brokers are much more optimistic than leasing companies about growth prospects in the SME sector in 2026, and firms foresee some growth in BCH demand in the year ahead.
- 50% of brokers forecast an increase in PCH demand
With ‘cut-throat’ levels of discounting and the fierce competition brought by the new OEMs has led to a resurgence in PCH as private motorists capitalise on ‘exceptional’ offers. However, leasing companies and brokers are having to adjust to more ‘commit to buy’ tactical campaigns from OEMs.
- 63% of brokers believe eLCV supply will increase
Of course, electric vans remain a huge challenge for broking and leasing companies with little demand and daunting residual values. As the ZEV mandate targets are ‘barely half the required level’ it’s thought likely that OEMs will reduce diesel availability – so far, forecast to be good in 2026 – by making eLCVs easier to source.
There are no concerns over car supply in 2026.
- 43% brokers expect increase in new OEMs on their fleets
With a new Chinese OEM seemingly launching every month, throughout the year they’ve recognised that the broking and leasing sector is a valuable route to market via salary sacrifice, BCH and PCH while they build up their retailer networks. Fierce competition between OEMs looks set to continue on 2026, promising another year of discounts and support to reduce fleet costs and lease rentals.
Uncertain economy good for leasing and rental
While nobody welcomes economic uncertainty or a lack of business confidence, rental and leasing demand could be boosted ‘giving customers access to the vehicles they require for exactly as long as they need them, protecting their capital reserves, and sheltering them from residual value uncertainty.’
The report adds that freezing income tax thresholds makes salary sacrifice ever more attractive, and brokers and leasing companies are excited that lower-cost EVs under £37,000 are arriving in volume, with 70% of firms expecting an increase in supply next year.
SMEs backbone of fleet
A commentary by Ian Richardson Managing Director, 360 Media Group (working with data provider Fleetwise) makes the strong point that SMEs ‘form the overwhelming majority of UK businesses’ and together ‘account for the largest share of fleet demand,’ yet this activity is under-reported and under-supported.
Advice for helping SMEs aligns with what many brokers are already doing: ‘Offer solutions that that simplify fleet admin and squarely address the challenges faced by customers spending no more than two to four hours per week [on fleet].’
Autonomous vehicles need fleet management
Next year we will finally see autonomous vehicles on UK streets from such as Waymo.
Lukas Neckermann, Managing Director, Neckermann Strategic Advisors, who has written extensively on the future of fleet and corporate mobility writes that leasing companies stand to make huge financial gains in the management of autonomous fleets. ‘This industry possesses the depots, as well as the logistical and operational tools necessary to ensure seamless delivery of autonomous rides.’
Download the BVRLA Industry Outlook Report 2026
The full report also includes analysis on the economy, business and tourism. Read it in full here
Broker News Newsletter 7 July 2026
Catch up on the latest leasing broker news in the 7 July 2026 Broker News newsletter
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Russell Hayes’ early career was 14 years of motoring journalism in print (for What Car?), television (for Top Gear), as well as online. Since 2007 he has authored 12 motoring history books on subjects including TVR, the Earls Court Motor Show, the Volkswagen Golf and Aston Martin – see Russell Hayes on Amazon. However, he’s not forgotten how to be a motoring journalist and now writes for UK consumer motoring sites – not to mention Broker News. When he’s not writing, Russell can be found in the cinema or planning his next travel adventure.
