THE market for electric vehicles (EVs) in 2021 will be 200,000 – representing a 100% increase on the 2020 figures.
The market prediction has been made by EV broker specialist Drive Electric.
In 2020, EVs accounted for 108,205 registrations according to latest SMMT data, an increase of 185.9% while taking a 6.6% market share.
DriveElectric says it uses its own model, built from its intelligence of the UK market, to forecast registrations of battery electric cars and vans. According to the Marlow broker, it had predicted 98,500 registrations for 2020 – and despite COVID-19 the final figures exceeded this.
Why the big increase in EV registrations?
DriveElectric says its market prediction is based on the following intelligence:
• The UK government announcement to end new petrol and diesel sales by 2030 has focused drivers on the EV proposition.
• Financial incentives for battery electric vehicles will remain, including a rate of just 1% BIK company car tax for tax year 2021/22.
• Volkswagen Group and Mercedes-Benz will bring more EVs to market in 2021 with production plans based on new EV-specific platforms.
• Hyundai and Kia will continue to sell large numbers of EVs, along with PSA – but the BEV-specific platform from Hyundai/Kia arriving in 2021, along with Korean battery technology and competitive prices, will give them an advantage.
• Tesla will continue to sell large volumes of EVs due to the brand’s popularity, but could be constrained by supply until production ramps up in its new factories in Berlin and Austin, Texas; when that happens, Tesla could equal BMW and Mercedes as a 100,000 sales per year luxury brand very quickly in the UK.
• Nissan may continue to underperform relative to the head start it had with the LEAF, as it faces increased competition from manufacturers with newer EV models, and the forthcoming Ariya SUV won’t be available until late in 2021.
• There is growing environmental awareness, about climate change and also about challenges with local air quality; EVs help to provide a solution in both areas.
• Increasing numbers of proposed initiatives such as Clean Air Zones are resulting in organisations looking to renew their fleets with electric rather than petrol or diesel vehicles.
Mike Potter, managing director of DriveElectric, added:
It is interesting to see that battery electric vehicle registrations in 2020 exceeded our forecast despite the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021 there will be even more EV models on sale, so motorists looking to save money on running costs and to banish tailpipe emissions will have even more choice.