- Petrol car supply throttled back by OEMs
- Vauxhall fleet sales slump as it’s dumped out of fleet best sellers
- BEVs increase 58% year on year
- BVRLA says BEVs going in the right direction but demand unbalanced
A COLLAPSE in Vauxhall registrations has seen the brand drop out of the top 15 fleet best sellers’ list for the first time in living memory.
Vauxhall, possibly the brand second most associated with the company car in the UK after Ford, saw total new car registrations reach just 4,817 cars in November, placing it 17th.
Broker News understands the absence of the Crossland and Grandland for the past few months coupled to the brand managing supply to ensure ZEV compliance has caused the drop. However, the introduction of the Frontera and new Grandland is likely to see Vauxhall’s fortunes improve in 2025.
Vauxhall is not alone in managing supply and deliberate manufacturer constraints on petrol cars is beginning to hit the new car registrations.
November was the first month when the market share of petrol cars (including non-plugin hybrids) fell below 60% since diesel fell out of favour almost 10 years ago.
During November, petrol registrations took a 58.5% market share and were down 15% on the same month last year. Industry sources within franchised retailers and OEMs have told Broker News the deliberate supply constraints by several brands have been put in place due to the ZEV Mandate targets which will see hefty fines placed on OEMs for failing to hit government electric car targets.
Against November 2023, the month also saw diesel drop 10%, and PHEVs drop 1.2%. However, BEVs rocketed 58%.
“ZEV registrations are heading in the right direction, but the market remains imbalanced. Electric vehicle sales are still being propped up by unsustainable levels of discounting from OEMs and the huge depreciation being absorbed by leasing companies. Demand is still too fragile on the consumer side, which is a critical piece of the puzzle if the targets are to be hit year-on-year.”
Toby Poston, incoming CEO, BVRLA
For the year-to-date, cars refuelled using only petrol saw their market share drop from nearly 69% to 66% despite a near level number of unit registrations. While the overall market is running up 2.8% in the first 11 months of 2024, BEV registrations are up 18% and now account for 18.7% of the total market.
The Government’s ZEV Mandate has set each OEM a target of 22% for 2024, however, there are reductions in this for lowering average CO2.
PHEV registrations are running up nearly 20% year-to-date, with an 8.5% share.
Carwow sees strengthening demand for BEVs
Responding to the latest SMMT new car registration figures, Philipp Sayler von Amende, Chief Commercial Officer at Carwow’s Get Your Car commented:
“The SMMT registration figures show demand for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) continues to strengthen, and our data suggests there are clear reasons for optimism as we approach 2025.
“Configurations on Carwow, a strong indicator of future purchase intent, increased strongly for plug-in cars during November, with BEV configurations up by 43% year-on-year, and hybrids up by 24%. In comparison, petrol and diesel configurations dropped by 9% and 22%, respectively.
“BEVs also now comprise a growing proportion of the enquiries that we direct to our retailer partners. In November, BEVs made up 25% of all enquiries, which is the highest it has been since March 2022. PHEV enquiries also reached a 12-month peak, at 8.4%.”
Source: SMMT
Target manipulation
Describing the size of the fines being faced by some OEMs for failing to hit the ZEV Mandate target, Auto Trader said they were “existential”, with CEO Nathan Coe, speaking to Broker News, adding: “The fine level is prohibitive and the only route out is to stop selling ICE cars.”
Suzuki has already confirmed it has had to cut many of its higher CO2 petrol cars from sale due to the ZEV targets. As a result, the Japanese brand has dropped nearly 2,500 units in the past two months after reaching the end of September without any drop in performance.
Sources at Toyota have told Broker News the firm is managing its supply of non-BEV cars to minimise the impact of the fines. Toyota is currently running down more than 8,000 cars year-to-date despite having launched several new models this year. The source added that the restrictions would continue into 2025.
Stellantis has also declared that it will hit the ZEV target this year and has both set retailer targets for the level of BEVs needed to be registered and is offering significant discounts on its BEV range. However, this alone may not be enough and ICE restrictions may be needed. Vauxhall, Stellantis’s largest volume brand, is currently the second worst market performer in terms of units sold this year.
Ford, the worst performer, has seen new car registrations drop more than 33,000 units this year. While Ford boss Lisa Brankin claimed the business was not restricting ICE units in the first nine months of 2024, she did not rule out the policy if the government did not introduce incentives in the Budget. Ford has also consistently claimed its sales performance would improve as the year progressed and as new electric models such as the Explorer and Capri were introduced.
Top 5 brands by unit increase YTD
Bottom 5 brands by unit decrease YTD
1 Mercedes +16,146
2 BMW +15,389
3 Volvo +14,827
4 Renault +13,422
5 Nissan +12,097
5 Porsche -4,781
4 Toyota -8,017
3 Audi -12,615
2 Vauxhall -21,205
1 Ford -33,017
Brands performing well
Not all OEMs have suffered as a result of the ZEV Mandate. Mercedes, which went through the pain of an agency model introduction in 2023, is this year running up 20% or just more than 16,000 units. However, its total is still well down on pre-pandemic numbers.
BMW and Volvo, both with strong and desirable EV line-ups, are also performing well.
Downward movement by some of the traditionally larger OEMs has highlighted the positive performance by some typically mid-field players. MG has now pushed Vauxhall out of the top 10 brands, while Skoda, currently one behind Vauxhall in 12th, could overtake it by the end of the year if it continues on its current trajectory.
Read our analysis of October 2024 new car registrations
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Tristan Young is an award winning journalist with more than 25 years’ experience reporting on the automotive industry focussing predominantly on fleet and retail. As a self-confessed petrol-head, Tristan has a weakness for car classifieds. When he’s not writing about the automotive industry, he can usually be found outdoors with a small pack of border collies.
