Mood around van fleet growth improving says Arval

UK van operators are becoming more optimistic about growth prospects for their fleets, according to Arval research.

The 2026 Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer shows 35% expect to be operating more vans within the next three years, up by five percentage points compared to last year.

John Peters, Head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said: “This is a longstanding question in our annual report and in 2025, van fleet managers were noticeably more downbeat than usual, with those predicting future growth falling by 10 percentage points year-on-year to 30%.

“We’re pleased to report the mood is more positive, with 35% now believing their fleet size will increase and the number expecting a contraction staying exactly the same at 13%. It’s quite a strong rebound.”

The picture was relatively consistent across businesses of all sizes, he said, although the smallest fleets surveyed were marginally the most buoyant – 36% of those with 10-99 employees are backing growth and 13% anticipating a reduction compared to 35% and 14% respectively for the largest operators with 999 staff or more.

“Overall, these figures reflect what we perceive as a slightly more optimistic attitude in the light commercial vehicle market that is probably indicative of the wider economy. While there are some economic headwinds, the UK has seen some growth this year.”

For the 2026 survey 10,157 company decision makers were interviewed across 33 countries by the independent research company Ipsos, out of which 305 interviews took place in the UK.

What do you think will happen to van numbers on your fleet in the next three years?

	UK	Europe	Global
Increase	35%	26%	28%
Remain stable	50%	62%	61%
Decrease	13%	8%	8%
Don’t know	2%	3%	3%

	All companies	Small companies	Medium companies	Large companies
Increase	40%	36%	32%	35%
Remain stable	50%	49%	54%	49%
Decrease	13%	13%	12%	14%
Don’t know	2%	2%	3%	2%

Small = 1-99 employees; medium 100-999; large 1,000 or more

John added it was also notable that UK predictions for both fleet expansion and contraction are higher than the Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer European average of 26% and 8% respectively, and global average of 28% and 8%.

“The figures show more variance among UK fleet managers about prospects for growth. We have been more affected by many other major economies by events in recent years such as the pandemic and this may account for the are wider range of opinions.”