THE UK may have reached “peak petrol” in 2024, according to experts at the Vehicle Remarketing Association (VRA) annual seminar held at The Slate, Warwick University. More than 160 delegates heard how the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) is set to reshape the automotive landscape, with petrol cars expected to decline in the coming years.
Louis Maxwell, Senior Insight Manager at Auto Trader, predicted a significant shift in the market.
“The numbers of petrol cars have stayed stable for the last decade, but the speed of electrification means that within five years, there will be two million fewer on our roads,” Maxwell stated. He highlighted the increasing affordability of used EVs, with a third now priced under £30,000, driving rapid sales and making them accessible to a wider range of buyers.
While the decline of petrol cars is expected to be more gradual than the dramatic fall of diesel seen over the last two years, the trend is clear. However, Andy Webb, Head of Sales at Brego, reassured attendees that values of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars are predicted to remain stable in the medium term. He even suggested that values could rise as supply dwindles, particularly if the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate production targets remain in place.
Van market bucks the trend
In contrast to the car market, the van sector remains firmly wedded to diesel. Dionne Hanlon, Senior Editor for Commercial Vehicles at cap hpi, reported that “diesel remains king” with little appetite for electrification. Hanlon cited a lack of awareness and incentives as key barriers, alongside concerns about the suitability of electric vans for certain applications.
“Van buyers know and trust diesel, and can see few obvious advantages in switching to electric,” she said. “Until that changes, the most in-demand vehicles in the market are likely to remain diesel vans.”
Economic outlook and industry support
The seminar also provided insights into the broader economic context. Graeme Chaplin, Bank of England Agent for the West Midlands, reported easing consumer price inflation and a downward trend in interest rates. While uncertainty persists, Chaplin anticipates subdued growth in the coming years.
David Bailey, an academic economist at Birmingham Business School, called on the government to take action to support the automotive industry’s transition to electrification. He urged greater flexibility around the ZEV Mandate, investment in public charging infrastructure, incentives for EV buyers, and a clear industrial strategy.
Retailers adapt to change
Danny Minshall, Regional Retail Director at Greenhous, highlighted the need for retailers to adapt to the evolving market. He emphasised the importance of agility, strong manufacturer relationships, efficient operations, and innovative retail approaches to navigate the challenges ahead.
He noted: “As a business, we are looking to be more adaptable. That means doing things like ensuring we are working with manufacturers who are genuinely supportive of our business, getting vehicles prepared and to market quickly, diversifying use of our dealerships and turning them into buyer destinations, using new communications options such as WhatsApp, becoming more efficient in terms of our backroom operations, looking at new retail options such as a town centre shop, and driving sales with the right business information.”
VRA Chair Philip Nothard praised the event for providing valuable insights to navigate the turbulent times in the motor industry. He highlighted the new interactive format, with on-stage interviews and increased delegate engagement, as a key success.
The VRA seminar, supported by industry sponsors, offered a comprehensive overview of the trends and challenges facing the vehicle remarketing sector in the year ahead. With “peak petrol” upon us, the industry is bracing for a period of significant transformation.
Automotive and fleet writer for Broker News
