SMEs see growth of fleet business, says Arval

SMALLER companies are more optimistic about the potential for car and van fleet growth, according to new research from Arval across Europe and the UK

The 2026 Arval Fleet and Mobility Observatory says smaller companies are making higher predictions of growth – 37% of those with 1-99 employees compared to 27% of those with more than 1,000. Larger companies also expect more contraction – 12% compared to 9%.

John Peters, Head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said: “This might be reflective of the wider economy, with larger companies feeling more exposed to unpredictable international events and the impact of developing trends such as greater use of AI.”

Overall, 33% of businesses are predicting a rise in vehicle numbers during the next three years – up from 28% in 2025.

However, there has also been an increase in the percentage who believe their fleet size will change – from 6% to 9% – while those who expect numbers to remain stable is down from 65% to 55%.

Peters added: “This is a question we ask every year in the Arval Fleet and Mobility Observatory Barometer, and it provides a good indication, we believe, of how fleets are feeling about not just their individual operations but the wider economy.”

“In our view, the results are an accurate reflection of the mood of the fleet sector at this moment. Businesses perhaps feel their situation is more stable than for several years and some growth is being seen but there remain significant downside risks, such as the possibility of sudden changes in global tariffs.”

John Peters, Head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK Tweet

Car-only UK fleets have a slightly brighter outlook than their mixed car-and-van counterparts with 39% expecting their numbers to rise – although contraction is also higher at 14%.

John said: “It is probable anticipated growth is being driven by rising salary sacrifice numbers, with schemes of this type continuing to drive company car popularity by providing an attractive employee benefit at little or no cost to the employer.”

Finally, UK car and van predictions of growth and contraction are both higher than the Arval Fleet and Mobility Observatory Barometer’s European average of 22% growth and 5% contraction, and global average of 26% growth and 5% contraction.

Full breakdown of survey data

For the 2026 Arval Fleet and Mobility Observatory survey, 10,157 company decision makers were interviewed across 33 countries by the independent research company, Ipsos, out of which 305 interviews took place in the UK.

In the next three years, do you think the number of cars and vans in your fleet will increase, decrease or remain the same?

RESULTS BY COMPANY SIZE

INCREASE STABLE DECREASE DON’T KNOW

TOTAL 33% 55% 9% 3%

SMALL 37% 49% 9% 5%

MEDIUM 29% 63% 8% 0%

LARGE 27% 60% 12% 1%

note: small = 1-99 employees; medium 100-999; large 1,000 or more.

In the next three years, do you think the number of cars and vans in your fleet will increase, decrease or remain the same?

RESULTS FOR UK, EUROPE AND GLOBAL

INCREASE STABLE DECREASE DON’T KNOW

UK 33% 55% 9% 3%