Cox Automotive predicts dramatic market shift as EVs and hybrids surge

The forecast – which includes fuel-type breakdowns for the first time – predicts EV share of registrations will grow 160%
ICE share of registrations will contract to 38% – diesel will drop to 3%
Volume of ICE vehicles joining the used car parc by 2028 set to decline 69%
Used market predicted to grow by 11% by 2028
Change comes on top of 3.1 million cars lost since 2020

THE UK car market is on the cusp of a radical transformation, according to a new forecast by Cox Automotive. The report predicts a significant decline in petrol and diesel cars, with electric and hybrid vehicles taking centre stage.

A key takeaway is the plummeting popularity of diesel cars. Their share of registrations is expected to shrink to a mere 3% by 2028, compared to 38% in the period 2016-2019. Petrol cars will also see a decline, though less dramatic, with their market share dropping to 35% by 2028.

This decline in traditional fuel types paves the way for electric and hybrid vehicles. The forecast predicts a staggering 160% growth in EV registrations by 2027 compared to the previous four years. Hybrids are also set for a significant increase, reaching 25% of the market by 2028.

Philip Nothard, Insight Director, Cox Automotive said: “The registration of the millionth EV in the UK is an important milestone in the transition to zero-emission motoring. But with two in every five new cars joining the UK car parc this year forecast to be EV or hybrid, and with that proportion destined to grow rapidly in future years, dynamics in the used market over the next four years will arguably rival the complexity and impact of those experienced during the pandemic.”

Industry experts attribute this shift to stricter government regulations and a growing consumer focus on sustainability. However, the report cautions that used car buyers may not embrace EVs as quickly as the new car market suggests. Factors like affordability, charging infrastructure, and concerns about battery technology could dampen demand in the short term.

“It’s almost impossible to overstate the shift in the UK car parc over the past four years and how that change will continue to accelerate. Today's parc for cars aged 0-4 years differs significantly from 2020 and will contrast even more so in 2028. Manufacturers will continue to be driven by legislation rather than consumer demand and ICE will be all but gone from the UK new car market long before the 2035 deadline.”

Philip Nothard, Insight Director, Cox Automotive Tweet

The transformation of the car market will undoubtedly impact used car retailers. With a diminishing supply of petrol and diesel vehicles, competition for quality used stock is expected to intensify. Consumers, on the other hand, may face limited choices and potentially higher prices as EVs become more mainstream.

Despite the uncertainties, the report’s overall outlook for the used car market is positive. A modest growth is predicted by 2028, albeit with a significantly different composition compared to today.