UK market swings into push mode says Cox Automotive

COX Automotive says that UK car market has swung into push mode following the latest registration figures.

The company says its forecasts for 2023, published every quarter, predicted that new car registrations would total 1.94 million by year’s end. With its year-to-date baseline forecast of 1,651,611 proving 97.2% accurate to the SMMT’s recently published actual figure of 1,605,437, Cox Automotive says its confident that its full-year forecast remains a reliable guide.

Cox Automotive’s insight director Philip Nothard (main picture) said:

“As we head into the homestretch of 2023, we stand by the accuracy of our market-leading forecasts which have proven, time and time again, to be copper-bottomed.

“The most recent SMMT figures give us even more confidence in their accuracy and, what’s more, chime with the widespread belief that the new car arena has returned to a ‘push’ marketplace.

“Our analysis tells us that tactical registrations, a relic of the industry’s past, are taking place on the part of OEMs. That could help explain the increased percentage of reported fleet registrations, in addition to OEMs returning to the recently constrained fleet channel. It is clear they are moving to resolve their market share.”  

October’s registration figures from the SMMT recorded the best new car registrations since 2019 although EV growth remained subdued. October saw 153,529 new cars take to UK roads – a 14.3% year-on-year increase. The SMMT believed that growth was largely due to the purchasing activity of large fleets, which accounted for three in four EV sales over the past year.  

“Both the new and used markets continue to face challenges, such as the cost-of-living crisis hindering demand,” Philip said. “In 2024, the sector will witness a surge in OEMs transitioning to new agency or hybrid dealer networks across the UK and Europe. This shift may present volume and market share fluctuations, as adapting to new systems, processes and strategies takes time.   

“The new car numbers and our outlook for the coming years reaffirm that this industry is characterised by volume and is positive for the economy, as it will generate more jobs and income. 

“We foresee continued growth for 2024 albeit at a slower pace than in 2023. And we also believe the muted private demand for new EVs has to be tackled by more government incentives. It remains to be seen whether the 2035 ICE deadline will continue to impact the sale of new EVs.”