Will electric car sales hit the 22% ZEV mandate requirement in 2024?

MANY factors are likely to influence the number of electric car registrations in 2024.

Compared to the Covid-19 pandemic and post-pandemic periods, there is now a considerable increase in the production volumes of electric vehicles (EVs), including an ever-widening choice of makes, models and body styles, with the notable appearance of a number of new brands from China. 

However, only reaching a deal at the last minute in December 2023 about UK-EU Rules of Origin, which avoids tariffs on EVs, has presented a challenge for planning EV production numbers in 2024.

Businesses will continue to drive EV uptake 

In addition, unless the UK Government changes it policy on consumer purchase incentives or reduces a lack of consumer incentives, or reduces taxes in the run-up to a general election, or there’s a new government with a more pro-EV policy, sales of new EVs are likely to continue to be mainly to businesses and fleets.

This means that many new EV sales are likely to continue being ‘executive’ cars that appeal to businesses rather than, for example, small family cars – even though a number of new ‘affordable’ EVs are due to come to market in 2024.

Electric car sales will fall short of 22%

Against this background, what will happen to EV sales in 2024? DriveElectric believes that a combination of factors, such as the ZEV mandate and the cost savings for businesses switching to EVs, will result in continued upward sales growth.

We are forecasting 380,000 registrations of battery electric cars in 2024. Based on two million new car registrations in total, this equates to a market share of 19% for battery electric cars (compared to 16.5% in 2023). This falls short of the target of 22% of new cars being zero emission vehicles. 

The main reasons for that are a lack of consumer incentives in a period of continued cost of living pressures, and many car manufacturers not having enough zero emission models on sale.

Factors such as high interest rates and cost of living pressures had a significant impact on consumer EV sales in 2023.

While there are still challenges, such as the messaging around the ban on sales of new ICE vehicles being delayed from 2030 to 2035, the ZEV mandate should help to maintain the rise in EV sales that we’ve seen over recent years.

But due to an absence of consumer incentives and many manufacturers not having sufficient EVs in their model line-ups, it’s likely to be a challenge to meet the target of 22% of new cars being zero emission.

Organisations will be continuing to adopt EVs in order to make progress towards their net zero and sustainability commitments, but feedback suggests that misinformation about electric cars in the media is having a negative impact on buyers. DriveElectric will continue to communicate in a trusted way about EVs, including with real-world case studies about the lower cost of electric vehicle ownership and the higher levels of customer satisfaction.