PREDICTIONS from DriveElectric forecast that at least 330,000 new pure-electric vehicles will be registered in the UK in the coming 12 months, according to one of the UK’s leading EV leasing firms.

The figure is based on extensive forecasting models by the EV specialist leasing broker, and represents a significant increase over 2021’s final total of 190,727 new pure-electric cars from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders’ (SMMT) figures.

Last year’s pure-electric total was more than 76% up on 2020’s registrations, though it is worth remembering that both years were impacted significantly by Covid-19 issues.

Should DriveElectric’s forecasts prove correct, it would see a similar rate of growth to that found over the last year. The predictions deal only with pure-EVs, and do not include plug-in hybrid models.

Although DriveElectric’s forecasts for 2021 were 10,000 units out – it was predicted 200,000 pure-EVs would come to the UK last year – it was still a close estimate and influenced by a range of market conditions. This year, should supply issues be sorted, DriveElectric reckons its forecast could well be under what eventually plays out.

EV registrations will continue to increase, however issues such as the semiconductor shortage will still have an impact on the availability of vehicles as we enter 2022. We see this challenge improving by mid-2022 and sales for the remainder of the year should offset the slow start, helped by yet more new EV models coming to market.

Mike Potter, managing director at DriveElectric

Background factors that will come into play for the electric vehicle market in 2022 include vehicle shortages, primarily down to industry-wide semiconductor supply issues. 

EV production will ramp up in the coming year however, with manufacturers switching increasing proportions of their plants to the manufacturer of EVs. One such example is that Tesla is set to open two new factories, that will treble volume for the manufacturer. The Tesla Model 3 finished the year in second place for total new car registrations for 2022.

A large number of new models will arrive in the UK, both those that have been available to order now, and models planned for release further down the line. 

Public EV charging infrastructure is seeing continued investment, changes in both the Plug-in Car Grant (PiCG) and Electric Vehicle Homecharge Scheme (EVHS) will see some potential EV drivers lose out, but open up running an electric car to others, and continued fluctuations in energy and fuel prices will see increasing numbers of motorists look at EVs closely – with the leasing market set to play a large part in those 330,000 new EVs reaching drivers.

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